South Africa vs Guinea: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
South Africavs
GuineaThe model puts South Africa at 50%. The model leans toward South Africa. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- South Africa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guinea have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- South Africa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- South Africa is priced at 1.85.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts South Africa at 50%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Guinea at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward South Africa. South Africa is priced at 1.85. The draw is priced at 3.125. Guinea is priced at 4.565.
South Africa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Guinea have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
South Africa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Guinea have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, South Africa or Guinea?
Our model rates South Africa as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for South Africa vs Guinea?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 South Africa wins, 1 draws, 1 Guinea wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Lesotho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Gabon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Niger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.