Burundi vs Algeria: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Burundivs
AlgeriaThe model puts Algeria at 75%. The model leans toward Algeria. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Algeria.
- +The head-to-head record favours Algeria (0-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Burundi have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Algeria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Algeria is priced at 1.26.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Burundi at 8%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Algeria at 75%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Algeria. Burundi is priced at 11. The draw is priced at 5.15. Algeria is priced at 1.26.
Algeria have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Burundi have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Algeria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Burundi or Algeria?
Our model rates Algeria as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Burundi vs Algeria?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 Burundi wins, 2 draws, 3 Algeria wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.