Botswana vs Tunisia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Botswanavs
TunisiaThe model puts Tunisia at 77%. The model leans toward Tunisia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Botswana (5-2-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Botswana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tunisia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Botswana have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tunisia is priced at 1.162.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Botswana at 8%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Tunisia at 77%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Tunisia. Botswana is priced at 18. The draw is priced at 6.15. Tunisia is priced at 1.162.
Botswana have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Tunisia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Botswana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Tunisia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 29% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Botswana or Tunisia?
Our model rates Tunisia as the most likely outcome at 77% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Botswana vs Tunisia?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 5 Botswana wins, 2 draws, 2 Tunisia wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.