Gabon vs Niger: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gabonvs
NigerThe model puts Gabon at 59%. The model leans toward Gabon. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Gabon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Niger have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gabon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Gabon is priced at 1.56.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gabon at 59%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Niger at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Gabon. Gabon is priced at 1.56. The draw is priced at 3.65. Niger is priced at 6.09.
Gabon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Niger have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Gabon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Niger have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gabon or Niger?
Our model rates Gabon as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gabon vs Niger?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 3 Gabon wins, 0 draws, 4 Niger wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 | Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.