Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Equatorial Guineavs
Sierra LeoneThe model puts Equatorial Guinea at 48%. The model leans toward Equatorial Guinea. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Equatorial Guinea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sierra Leone have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Equatorial Guinea have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Equatorial Guinea is priced at 1.929.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Equatorial Guinea at 48%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Sierra Leone at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Equatorial Guinea. Equatorial Guinea is priced at 1.929. The draw is priced at 3.25. Sierra Leone is priced at 3.94.
Equatorial Guinea have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Sierra Leone have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Equatorial Guinea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Sierra Leone have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Equatorial Guinea or Sierra Leone?
Our model rates Equatorial Guinea as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 Equatorial Guinea wins, 1 draws, 2 Sierra Leone wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.