St. Johnstone vs Celtic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Johnstonevs
CelticThe model puts Celtic at 67%. The model leans toward Celtic. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Celtic (1-1-13).
- +Recent form favours Celtic.
- −Celtic are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Johnstone have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celtic have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Johnstone have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Johnstone will be without Gullan J..
- Celtic will be without Emenalo, Hogh K., Filipe J., Osmand, Tierney K..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Johnstone at 15%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Celtic at 67%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-4.
The market leans toward Celtic. St. Johnstone is priced at 6.64. The draw is priced at 4.7. Celtic is priced at 1.42.
St. Johnstone have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Celtic have won 13 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
St. Johnstone have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Celtic have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Celtic are on 3 wins in a row.
St. Johnstone average 3 goals per game this season. St. Johnstone average 51% possession. Celtic average 4 goals per game this season. Celtic average 62% possession.
The model gives 76% for both teams to score. The model gives 93% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Johnstone or Celtic?
Our model rates Celtic as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Johnstone vs Celtic?
A scoreline around 1-4 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 St. Johnstone wins, 1 draws, 13 Celtic wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
St. Johnstone
- 1Steward
- 2Alic
- 3Diabate
- 5Mitchell
- 7Taylor
- 8Holt J.
- 9Fowler
- 11Stanton S.
- 33Smith L.
- 42McAlear
- 99Paton
- Gullan J. (Missing Player)
Celtic
- 1Sinisalo V.
- 5Scales
- 6Trusty A.
- 8Nygren B.
- 11Duran
- 13Jahn
- 20Carter-Vickers
- 22Baur
- 23Hassan H.
- 42McGregor C.
- 51Donovan
- Emenalo (Questionable)
- Hogh K. (Questionable)
- Filipe J. (Missing Player)
- Osmand (Missing Player)
- Tierney K. (Questionable)
League table
Scotland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:3 | 15 |
| 2 |  Heart of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 12 |
| 3 |  St. Mirren | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Rangers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:4 | 10 |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 6 |  Dundee | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 7 | St. Johnstone | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 8 |  Hibernian | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 9 |  Dundee United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2:7 | 4 |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:7 | 2 |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4:14 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.