Rangers vs Celtic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rangersvs
CelticThe model puts Rangers at 41%. The model puts Celtic at 35%. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Rangers.
- +The head-to-head record favours Rangers (8-4-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The model sees this as a close contest.
- Rangers have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Celtic have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rangers are on 2 wins in a row.
- Celtic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rangers at 41%. The model puts Celtic at 35%. The model puts the draw at 24%.
The model sees this as a close contest. The market frames this as a close contest.
Rangers have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Celtic have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rangers are on 2 wins in a row. Celtic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 53% for both teams to score.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rangers or Celtic?
Our model rates Rangers as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rangers vs Celtic?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Rangers wins, 4 draws, 3 Celtic wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.