St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Paulivs
VfL WolfsburgThe model puts St. Pauli at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours VfL Wolfsburg.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −St. Pauli are dealing with notable absentees.
- +VfL Wolfsburg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Pauli have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Pauli have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Pauli will be without Pereira Ma., Thordarson.
- VfL Wolfsburg will be without Angely, Trevor Chidubem Benedict, Wellenreuther, Oliveira da Silva R., Hornby F., Eriksen.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Pauli at 38%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts VfL Wolfsburg at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. St. Pauli is priced at 2.4. The draw is priced at 3.64. VfL Wolfsburg is priced at 2.625.
St. Pauli have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. VfL Wolfsburg have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
St. Pauli have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. VfL Wolfsburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Pauli average 1 goals per game this season. St. Pauli average 58% possession. VfL Wolfsburg average 3 goals per game this season. VfL Wolfsburg average 53% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Pauli or VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model rates St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 St. Pauli wins, 7 draws, 5 VfL Wolfsburg wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
St. Pauli
- 1Voll
- 4Nemeth D.
- 6Mathisen M.
- 8Smith E.
- 9Ceesay
- 11Pyrka
- 15Ando
- 18Hara Ta.
- 20Rasmussen Mat.
- 23Oppie
- 24Metcalfe C.
- Pereira Ma. (Missing Player)
- Thordarson (Missing Player)
VfL Wolfsburg
- 2Fischer
- 5Vinicius de Souza Costa
- 6Wahl H.
- 11Reese F.
- 17Bernhardsson
- 18Adjetey
- 19Glatzel
- 21Maehle
- 27Arnold M.
- 30Zielinski
- 37Rexhbecaj E.
- Angely (Missing Player)
- Trevor Chidubem Benedict (Missing Player)
- Wellenreuther (Missing Player)
- Oliveira da Silva R. (Missing Player)
- Hornby F. (Missing Player)
- Eriksen (Missing Player)
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nurnberg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 2 |  Hertha BSC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:5 | 12 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:10 | 9 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:6 | 8 |
| 5 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:1 | 8 |
| 6 |  VfL Bochum | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 6 |
| 7 |  1. Magdeburg | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:8 | 6 |
| 8 |  VfL Osnabruck | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:8 | 6 |
| 9 |  Karlsruher | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:8 | 5 |
| 10 |  Energie Cottbus | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10:12 | 4 |
| 11 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:10 | 4 |
| 12 |  Greuther Furth | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:9 | 4 |
| 13 |  Hannover 96 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:8 | 4 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10:10 | 3 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 17 |  Holstein | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | 3 |
| 18 |  Dynamo Dresden | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5:10 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.