Lesotho vs Morocco: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lesothovs
MoroccoThe model puts Morocco at 91%. The model leans toward Morocco. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lesotho have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Morocco have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lesotho have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Morocco is priced at 1.03.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 17 | 11 | 5 |
| 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lesotho at 2%. The model puts the draw at 7%. The model puts Morocco at 91%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Morocco. Lesotho is priced at 55. The draw is priced at 13.5. Morocco is priced at 1.03.
Lesotho have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Lesotho have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Morocco have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 17% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lesotho or Morocco?
Our model rates Morocco as the most likely outcome at 91% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lesotho vs Morocco?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 Lesotho wins, 0 draws, 0 Morocco wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.