Madagascar vs Tanzania: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Madagascarvs
TanzaniaThe model puts Madagascar at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Madagascar.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Madagascar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tanzania have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Madagascar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Madagascar is priced at 2.73.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Madagascar at 36%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Tanzania at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Madagascar is priced at 2.73. The draw is priced at 2.96. Tanzania is priced at 2.62.
Madagascar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Tanzania have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Madagascar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Madagascar are on 3 wins in a row. Tanzania have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Madagascar or Tanzania?
Our model rates Madagascar as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Madagascar vs Tanzania?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 Madagascar wins, 1 draws, 2 Tanzania wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.