Africa Cup of Nations

Republic of the Gambia vs Somalia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Republic of the Gambiavs

Somalia

Our predictionRepublic of the Gambia to win

Model score: Medium · 50/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Republic of the Gambia at 75%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.

Win probabilities

1 · Republic of the Gambia75%

Draw17%

2 · Somalia8%

1 · Republic of the GambiaDraw2 · Somalia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.60+11.1%

1X2Republic of the Gambia1.230.0%

1X2Draw5.600.0%

1X2Somalia11.200.0%

BTTSYes2.20-11.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Republic of the Gambia

Somalia

Most likely scorelines

2-017.5%

1-016.1%

3-012.6%

2-17.5%

0-07.4%

1-16.9%

Expected goals

2.17Republic of the Gambia

0.43Somalia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score31%

Match DNA

Republic of the Gambia Somalia

Key points

Republic of the Gambia is priced at 1.232.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Republic of the Gambia win1.23Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	3
1	16	7	1
2	17	8	2
3	13	5	1
4	7	3
5	3	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Republic of the Gambia at 75%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Somalia at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Republic of the Gambia. Republic of the Gambia is priced at 1.232. The draw is priced at 5.6. Somalia is priced at 11.2.

The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →