1. Heidenheim vs Holstein: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. Heidenheimvs
HolsteinThe model puts 1. Heidenheim at 49%. The model leans toward 1. Heidenheim. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Holstein.
- +The head-to-head record favours 1. Heidenheim (7-4-4).
- +Holstein are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. Heidenheim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Holstein have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Heidenheim have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. Heidenheim will be without Conteh S..
- Holstein will be without Abe, Kelati, Muqaj, Reimers M., Roslyng, Schonlau, Kvilitaia G., Rosenboom L., Skrzybski.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. Heidenheim at 49%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Holstein at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward 1. Heidenheim. 1. Heidenheim is priced at 2.1. The draw is priced at 3.74. Holstein is priced at 3.08.
1. Heidenheim have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Holstein have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. Heidenheim have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. Heidenheim are on 2 wins in a row. Holstein have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
1. Heidenheim average 4 goals per game this season. 1. Heidenheim average 54% possession. Holstein average 2 goals per game this season. Holstein average 50% possession.
The model gives 82% for both teams to score. The model gives 89% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. Heidenheim or Holstein?
Our model rates 1. Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. Heidenheim vs Holstein?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 1. Heidenheim wins, 4 draws, 4 Holstein wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
1. Heidenheim
- 2Busch M.
- 3Schoppner
- 6Mainka
- 17Honsak
- 18Vogt
- 19Fohrenbach
- 22Mhamdi
- 24Costly M.
- 27Heule
- 29Kaufmann M.
- 33Dahne
- Conteh S. (Missing Player)
Holstein
- 1Vyner
- 8Balzi
- 10Therkelsen
- 13Nekic
- 15Davidsen
- 19Harres
- 20Kapralik A.
- 26Zec D.
- 28Meffert
- 32Sekine
- 47Tolkin J.
- Abe (Missing Player)
- Kelati (Missing Player)
- Muqaj (Missing Player)
- Reimers M. (Missing Player)
- Roslyng (Missing Player)
- Schonlau (Missing Player)
- Kvilitaia G. (Missing Player)
- Rosenboom L. (Missing Player)
- Skrzybski (Missing Player)
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nurnberg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 2 |  Hertha BSC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:5 | 12 |
| 3 | 1. Heidenheim | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:10 | 9 |
| 4 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:6 | 8 |
| 5 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:1 | 8 |
| 6 |  VfL Bochum | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 6 |
| 7 |  1. Magdeburg | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:8 | 6 |
| 8 |  VfL Osnabruck | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:8 | 6 |
| 9 |  Karlsruher | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:8 | 5 |
| 10 |  Energie Cottbus | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10:12 | 4 |
| 11 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:10 | 4 |
| 12 |  Greuther Furth | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:9 | 4 |
| 13 |  Hannover 96 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:8 | 4 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10:10 | 3 |
| 16 |  St. Pauli | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 17 | Holstein | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | 3 |
| 18 |  Dynamo Dresden | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5:10 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.