Lyon vs Stade Rennais: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lyonvs
Stade RennaisThe model puts Lyon at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Stade Rennais.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lyon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stade Rennais have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lyon have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lyon is priced at 2.07.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lyon at 44%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Stade Rennais at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Lyon. Lyon is priced at 2.07. The draw is priced at 3.82. Stade Rennais is priced at 3.24.
Lyon have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Stade Rennais have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lyon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Stade Rennais have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Stade Rennais are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lyon or Stade Rennais?
Our model rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lyon vs Stade Rennais?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Lyon wins, 1 draws, 8 Stade Rennais wins.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Monaco | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Stade Rennais | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Paris | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 4 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 5 |  Lille OSC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9:8 | 7 |
| 7 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 5 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 9 |  Troyes AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 10 |  RC Lens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 3 |
| 11 |  Olympique de Marseille | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 12 |  Angers SCO | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 13 |  Le Mans | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 2 |
| 14 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 2 |
| 15 |  Nice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4:11 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.