Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Olympique de Marseillevs
Paris Saint-GermainThe model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 61%. The model leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Olympique de Marseille (11-1-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Olympique de Marseille have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Olympique de Marseille have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paris Saint-Germain is priced at 1.49.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Olympique de Marseille at 20%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 61%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Olympique de Marseille is priced at 5.8. The draw is priced at 4.74. Paris Saint-Germain is priced at 1.49.
Olympique de Marseille have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. Paris Saint-Germain have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Olympique de Marseille have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Paris Saint-Germain have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Olympique de Marseille or Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model rates Paris Saint-Germain as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 11 Olympique de Marseille wins, 1 draws, 3 Paris Saint-Germain wins.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Monaco | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 2 |  Stade Rennais | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Paris | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 5 |  Lille OSC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9:8 | 7 |
| 7 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 5 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 9 |  Troyes AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 10 |  RC Lens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 3 |
| 11 | Olympique de Marseille | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 12 |  Angers SCO | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 13 |  Le Mans | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 2 |
| 14 | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 2 |
| 15 |  Nice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4:11 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.