VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VfB Stuttgartvs
Borussia DortmundThe model puts VfB Stuttgart at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- VfB Stuttgart is priced at 2.29.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts VfB Stuttgart at 41%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Borussia Dortmund at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. VfB Stuttgart is priced at 2.29. The draw is priced at 3.76. Borussia Dortmund is priced at 2.85.
VfB Stuttgart have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. VfB Stuttgart are on 2 wins in a row. Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Borussia Dortmund are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund?
Our model rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 VfB Stuttgart wins, 2 draws, 7 Borussia Dortmund wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:5 | 6 |
| 5 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:0 | 4 |
| 6 |  Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 8 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 10 |  Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 12 |  Paderborn 07 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 14 |  Schalke 04 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 15 |  Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 16 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:6 | 0 |
| 17 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 0 |
| 18 |  Hamburger | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.