AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AZ Alkmaarvs
TelstarThe model puts AZ Alkmaar at 77%. The model leans toward AZ Alkmaar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours AZ Alkmaar.
- +The head-to-head record favours AZ Alkmaar (8-0-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- AZ Alkmaar have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Telstar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.26.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 77%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts Telstar at 9%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.26. The draw is priced at 6.4. Telstar is priced at 9.5.
AZ Alkmaar have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Telstar have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
AZ Alkmaar have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Telstar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
AZ Alkmaar average 2 goals per game this season. AZ Alkmaar average 54% possession. Telstar average 2 goals per game this season. Telstar average 29% possession.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 73% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AZ Alkmaar or Telstar?
Our model rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 77% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 8 AZ Alkmaar wins, 0 draws, 3 Telstar wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:5 | 13 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:6 | 10 |
| 6 |  Excelsior | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 10 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:14 | 10 |
| 8 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15:13 | 9 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 10 |  N.E.C. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 7 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:11 | 5 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11:19 | 5 |
| 15 |  Cambuur | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:18 | 4 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5:14 | 2 |
| 18 |  ADO Den Haag | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6:16 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.