Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sparta Rotterdamvs
HeerenveenThe model puts Sparta Rotterdam at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sparta Rotterdam.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sparta Rotterdam have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heerenveen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sparta Rotterdam is priced at 2.555.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sparta Rotterdam at 39%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Heerenveen at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Sparta Rotterdam is priced at 2.555. The draw is priced at 3.64. Heerenveen is priced at 2.584.
Sparta Rotterdam have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Heerenveen have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sparta Rotterdam have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Heerenveen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sparta Rotterdam average 0 goals per game this season. Sparta Rotterdam average 40% possession. Heerenveen average 2 goals per game this season. Heerenveen average 46% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sparta Rotterdam or Heerenveen?
Our model rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Sparta Rotterdam wins, 4 draws, 5 Heerenveen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:5 | 13 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:6 | 10 |
| 6 |  Excelsior | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 10 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:14 | 10 |
| 8 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15:13 | 9 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 10 |  N.E.C. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 7 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:11 | 5 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11:19 | 5 |
| 15 |  Cambuur | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:18 | 4 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5:14 | 2 |
| 18 |  ADO Den Haag | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6:16 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.