Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Willem IIvs
Fortuna SittardThe model puts Willem II at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Willem II.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Willem II have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Willem II have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Willem II is priced at 2.688.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Willem II at 38%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Fortuna Sittard at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Willem II is priced at 2.688. The draw is priced at 3.74. Fortuna Sittard is priced at 2.416.
Willem II have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Fortuna Sittard have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Willem II have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Willem II are on 4 wins in a row. Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Willem II average 1 goals per game this season. Willem II average 32% possession. Fortuna Sittard average 2 goals per game this season. Fortuna Sittard average 24% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Willem II or Fortuna Sittard?
Our model rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Willem II wins, 5 draws, 5 Fortuna Sittard wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:5 | 13 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:6 | 10 |
| 6 |  Excelsior | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 10 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:14 | 10 |
| 8 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15:13 | 9 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 10 |  N.E.C. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 7 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:11 | 5 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11:19 | 5 |
| 15 |  Cambuur | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:18 | 4 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
| 17 | Willem II | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5:14 | 2 |
| 18 |  ADO Den Haag | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6:16 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.