Twente vs PSV Eindhoven: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Twentevs
PSV EindhovenThe model puts PSV Eindhoven at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Twente (10-4-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Twente have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Twente have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- PSV Eindhoven is priced at 2.2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Twente at 36%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Twente is priced at 2.885. The draw is priced at 3.96. PSV Eindhoven is priced at 2.2.
Twente have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. PSV Eindhoven have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Twente have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. PSV Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Twente average 3 goals per game this season. Twente average 68% possession. PSV Eindhoven average 2 goals per game this season. PSV Eindhoven average 59% possession.
The model gives 79% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Twente or PSV Eindhoven?
Our model rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Twente vs PSV Eindhoven?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Twente wins, 4 draws, 1 PSV Eindhoven wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20:7 | 14 |
| 4 | Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:5 | 13 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:6 | 10 |
| 6 |  Excelsior | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 10 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:14 | 10 |
| 8 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15:13 | 9 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 10 |  N.E.C. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 7 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:11 | 5 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11:19 | 5 |
| 15 |  Cambuur | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:18 | 4 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5:14 | 2 |
| 18 |  ADO Den Haag | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6:16 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.