Velez Sarsfield vs Club Atletico Tigre: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Velez Sarsfieldvs
Club Atletico TigreThe model puts Velez Sarsfield at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Velez Sarsfield.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Velez Sarsfield are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Club Atletico Tigre are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Velez Sarsfield have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Atletico Tigre have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Velez Sarsfield will be without Gordon, Mammana.
- Club Atletico Tigre will be without Arias, Dubersarsky, Laso, Rivero.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Velez Sarsfield at 44%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Club Atletico Tigre at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Velez Sarsfield is priced at 2.228. The draw is priced at 2.923. Club Atletico Tigre is priced at 3.82.
Velez Sarsfield have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Club Atletico Tigre have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Velez Sarsfield have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Atletico Tigre have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Velez Sarsfield or Club Atletico Tigre?
Our model rates Velez Sarsfield as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Velez Sarsfield vs Club Atletico Tigre?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Velez Sarsfield wins, 4 draws, 6 Club Atletico Tigre wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Velez Sarsfield
- 1Marchiori
- 3Gomez E.
- 4Garcia
- 8Robertone
- 11Pellegrini
- 16Magallan
- 18Escobar
- 22Lanzini
- 29Aliendro
- 32Silvero
- 77Martinez Ro.
- Gordon (Missing Player)
- Mammana (Missing Player)
Club Atletico Tigre
- 3Banegas N.
- 4Moreno
- 8Garay
- 10Saralegui
- 12Zenobio F. T.
- 20Barrionuevo
- 22Lopez
- 27Gonzalez
- 29Russo I.
- 32Villalba
- 33Mendez
- Arias (Missing Player)
- Dubersarsky (Missing Player)
- Laso (Missing Player)
- Rivero (Missing Player)
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 22 |
| 2 |  Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:9 | 17 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 17 |
| 7 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11:8 | 13 |
| 8 |  Newell's Old Boys | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 9 |  Union de Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:16 | 13 |
| 10 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Platense | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:17 | 8 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:13 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.