Roma vs Internazionale Milano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Romavs
Internazionale MilanoThe model puts Roma at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Roma (10-3-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Roma have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Internazionale Milano have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Roma have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Roma is priced at 2.584.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Roma at 40%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Internazionale Milano at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Roma is priced at 2.584. The draw is priced at 3.24. Internazionale Milano is priced at 2.79.
Roma have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Internazionale Milano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Roma have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Internazionale Milano have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Roma or Internazionale Milano?
Our model rates Roma as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Roma vs Internazionale Milano?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Roma wins, 3 draws, 2 Internazionale Milano wins.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:1 | 9 |
| 2 | Internazionale Milano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 5 |  Milan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Frosinone Calcio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 8 |  Atalanta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 9 |  Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Udinese Calcio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 12 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 13 |  Torino | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Bologna 1909 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 16 |  Parma | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:4 | 1 |
| 17 |  Monza 1912 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4:8 | 1 |
| 18 |  Unione Venezia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.