CA Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CA Aldosivivs
Atletico TucumanThe model puts Atletico Tucuman at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours CA Aldosivi.
- −The head-to-head record favours CA Aldosivi (5-9-1).
- +CA Aldosivi are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Atletico Tucuman are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- CA Aldosivi have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CA Aldosivi have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CA Aldosivi will be without Moyano S., Palavecino, Sosa, Cufre, Sigali.
- Atletico Tucuman will be without Brandan, Franco, Benitez Mar., Ortiz, Suso.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CA Aldosivi at 36%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Atletico Tucuman at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. CA Aldosivi is priced at 3.19. The draw is priced at 2.961. Atletico Tucuman is priced at 2.491.
CA Aldosivi have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Atletico Tucuman have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 9 of their head-to-head meetings.
CA Aldosivi have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. CA Aldosivi are on 3 wins in a row. Atletico Tucuman have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CA Aldosivi or Atletico Tucuman?
Our model rates Atletico Tucuman as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CA Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 CA Aldosivi wins, 9 draws, 1 Atletico Tucuman wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
CA Aldosivi
- 8Garcia
- 9Cordero N.
- 10Gaitan
- 14Lopes
- 19Castro L.
- 24Anso
- 25Breitenbruch
- 29Vombergar
- 32Pombo
- 38Vales Ma.
- 42Acosta L.
- Moyano S. (Missing Player)
- Palavecino (Missing Player)
- Sosa (Missing Player)
- Cufre (Missing Player)
- Sigali (Missing Player)
Atletico Tucuman
- 1Ingolotti
- 5Fernandez Jul.
- 9Marulanda D.
- 11Tesuri
- 19Vega
- 21Galván
- 23Lamendola
- 24Di Placido L.
- 26Namandu
- 31Godoy
- 36Vallejo
- Brandan (Missing Player)
- Franco (Missing Player)
- Benitez Mar. (Missing Player)
- Ortiz (Missing Player)
- Suso (Missing Player)
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 22 |
| 2 |  Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 17 |
| 7 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11:8 | 13 |
| 8 |  Newell's Old Boys | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 9 |  Union de Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:16 | 13 |
| 10 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Platense | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:17 | 8 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:13 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.