Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Barracas Centralvs
Independiente RivadaviaThe model puts Independiente Rivadavia at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Independiente Rivadavia (2-3-4).
- +Barracas Central are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Independiente Rivadavia are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Barracas Central have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Barracas Central have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Barracas Central will be without Duarte, Gamba, Orsini, Tobio, Morales, Espinola.
- Independiente Rivadavia will be without Bonifacio E., Macagno.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Barracas Central at 29%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Independiente Rivadavia at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Barracas Central is priced at 3.305. The draw is priced at 3. Independiente Rivadavia is priced at 2.398.
Barracas Central have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Independiente Rivadavia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Barracas Central have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Independiente Rivadavia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Barracas Central or Independiente Rivadavia?
Our model rates Independiente Rivadavia as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 2 Barracas Central wins, 3 draws, 4 Independiente Rivadavia wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 22 |
| 2 |  Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 17 |
| 7 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11:8 | 13 |
| 8 |  Newell's Old Boys | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 9 |  Union de Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:16 | 13 |
| 10 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Platense | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:17 | 8 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:13 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.