Paderborn 07 vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Paderborn 07vs
TSG 1899 HoffenheimThe model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 56%. The model leans toward TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Paderborn 07.
- +The head-to-head record favours TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (0-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Paderborn 07 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 1.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Paderborn 07 at 24%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 56%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Paderborn 07 is priced at 4.46. The draw is priced at 4.5. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 1.65.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Paderborn 07 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paderborn 07 or TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model rates TSG 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paderborn 07 vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Paderborn 07 wins, 2 draws, 4 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:5 | 6 |
| 5 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:0 | 4 |
| 6 |  Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 8 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 10 |  Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 12 | Paderborn 07 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 14 |  Schalke 04 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 15 |  Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 16 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:6 | 0 |
| 17 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 0 |
| 18 |  Hamburger | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.