Uganda vs Libya: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ugandavs
LibyaThe model puts Uganda at 47%. The model leans toward Uganda. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Uganda (1-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Uganda have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Libya have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Uganda have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Uganda is priced at 2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Uganda at 47%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Libya at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Uganda. Uganda is priced at 2. The draw is priced at 3.05. Libya is priced at 3.965.
Uganda have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Uganda have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Libya have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Uganda or Libya?
Our model rates Uganda as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Uganda vs Libya?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Uganda wins, 2 draws, 0 Libya wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.