Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Guinea-Bissauvs
NigeriaThe model puts Nigeria at 64%. The model leans toward Nigeria. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Nigeria.
- +The head-to-head record favours Nigeria (1-0-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Guinea-Bissau have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nigeria have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guinea-Bissau have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nigeria is priced at 1.5.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Guinea-Bissau at 13%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Nigeria at 64%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Nigeria. Guinea-Bissau is priced at 6.96. The draw is priced at 3.72. Nigeria is priced at 1.5.
Guinea-Bissau have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Nigeria have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Guinea-Bissau have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Nigeria have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Guinea-Bissau or Nigeria?
Our model rates Nigeria as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 Guinea-Bissau wins, 0 draws, 3 Nigeria wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.