Malta vs Gibraltar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Maltavs
GibraltarThe model puts Malta at 75%. The model leans toward Malta. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Malta.
- +The head-to-head record favours Malta (2-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Malta have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gibraltar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Malta have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Malta is priced at 1.29.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Malta at 75%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Gibraltar at 7%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Malta. Malta is priced at 1.29. The draw is priced at 5.05. Gibraltar is priced at 12.5.
Malta have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Gibraltar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Malta have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Malta are on 3 wins in a row. Gibraltar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Malta or Gibraltar?
Our model rates Malta as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Malta vs Gibraltar?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Malta wins, 0 draws, 1 Gibraltar wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League D| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 2 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Andorra | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.