Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Azerbaijanvs
LiechtensteinThe model puts Azerbaijan at 88%. The model leans toward Azerbaijan. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Azerbaijan.
- +The head-to-head record favours Azerbaijan (3-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Azerbaijan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liechtenstein have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Azerbaijan have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Azerbaijan is priced at 1.085.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 18 | 4 | ||||
| 2 | 21 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 17 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 10 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Azerbaijan at 88%. The model puts the draw at 9%. The model puts Liechtenstein at 3%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is priced at 1.085. The draw is priced at 9.8. Liechtenstein is priced at 35.
Azerbaijan have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Liechtenstein have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Azerbaijan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Liechtenstein have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 17% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Azerbaijan or Liechtenstein?
Our model rates Azerbaijan as the most likely outcome at 88% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 3 Azerbaijan wins, 1 draws, 1 Liechtenstein wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League D| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Malta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Andorra | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.