Clube Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Clube Atletico Mineirovs
ChapecoenseThe model puts Clube Atletico Mineiro at 69%. The model leans toward Clube Atletico Mineiro. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Clube Atletico Mineiro.
- +Clube Atletico Mineiro score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Clube Atletico Mineiro creates more chances (15 vs 11 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Clube Atletico Mineiro controls more of the ball (49% vs 42%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Clube Atletico Mineiro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chapecoense have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Clube Atletico Mineiro have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Clube Atletico Mineiro is priced at 1.44.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Clube Atletico Mineiro at 69%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Chapecoense at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Clube Atletico Mineiro. Clube Atletico Mineiro is priced at 1.44. The draw is priced at 4.54. Chapecoense is priced at 7.2.
Clube Atletico Mineiro have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Chapecoense have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Clube Atletico Mineiro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Clube Atletico Mineiro are on 2 wins in a row. Chapecoense have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Clube Atletico Mineiro average 2 goals per game this season. Clube Atletico Mineiro average 49% possession. Chapecoense average 1 goals per game this season. Chapecoense average 42% possession.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Clube Atletico Mineiro or Chapecoense?
Our model rates Clube Atletico Mineiro as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Clube Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Clube Atletico Mineiro wins, 6 draws, 5 Chapecoense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 53:22 | 57 |
| 2 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 47:21 | 56 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:31 | 46 |
| 4 |  Bahia | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 42:33 | 46 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 39:39 | 42 |
| 7 | Clube Atletico Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 35:31 | 39 |
| 8 |  Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 37:38 | 38 |
| 9 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 32:29 | 36 |
| 10 |  Santos | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 39:39 | 35 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 31:30 | 33 |
| 12 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 27:39 | 33 |
| 13 |  Corinthians Paulista | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 28:29 | 32 |
| 14 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 38:41 | 32 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 31:42 | 29 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 28:35 | 28 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 29:41 | 28 |
| 18 |  Sport Club Internacional | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 30:35 | 28 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 27 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 31:45 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 28:52 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.