Gremio Porto Alegrense vs Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gremio Porto Alegrensevs
Sociedade Esportiva PalmeirasThe model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 45%. The model leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Gremio Porto Alegrense.
- −The head-to-head record favours Gremio Porto Alegrense (8-3-4).
- −Gremio Porto Alegrense creates more chances (14 vs 12 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Gremio Porto Alegrense have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gremio Porto Alegrense have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 2.08.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gremio Porto Alegrense at 30%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Gremio Porto Alegrense is priced at 3.56. The draw is priced at 3.4. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 2.08.
Gremio Porto Alegrense have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Gremio Porto Alegrense have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Gremio Porto Alegrense average 2 goals per game this season. Gremio Porto Alegrense average 48% possession. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 2 goals per game this season. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 49% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gremio Porto Alegrense or Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras?
Our model rates Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gremio Porto Alegrense vs Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Gremio Porto Alegrense wins, 3 draws, 4 Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 53:22 | 57 |
| 2 | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 47:21 | 56 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:31 | 46 |
| 4 |  Bahia | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 42:33 | 46 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 39:39 | 42 |
| 7 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 35:31 | 39 |
| 8 |  Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 37:38 | 38 |
| 9 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 32:29 | 36 |
| 10 |  Santos | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 39:39 | 35 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 31:30 | 33 |
| 12 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 27:39 | 33 |
| 13 |  Corinthians Paulista | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 28:29 | 32 |
| 14 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 38:41 | 32 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 31:42 | 29 |
| 16 | Gremio Porto Alegrense | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 28:35 | 28 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 29:41 | 28 |
| 18 |  Sport Club Internacional | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 30:35 | 28 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 27 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 31:45 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 28:52 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.