Sao Paulo vs Sport Club Internacional: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sao Paulovs
Sport Club InternacionalThe model puts Sao Paulo at 52%. The model leans toward Sao Paulo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sao Paulo.
- +Sao Paulo score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Sao Paulo creates more chances (15 vs 13 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sao Paulo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sport Club Internacional have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sao Paulo have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sao Paulo is priced at 1.97.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sao Paulo at 52%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Sport Club Internacional at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo is priced at 1.97. The draw is priced at 3.46. Sport Club Internacional is priced at 3.88.
Sao Paulo have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Sport Club Internacional have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sao Paulo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Sao Paulo are on 2 wins in a row. Sport Club Internacional have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sao Paulo average 2 goals per game this season. Sao Paulo average 53% possession. Sport Club Internacional average 1 goals per game this season. Sport Club Internacional average 48% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sao Paulo or Sport Club Internacional?
Our model rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Sport Club Internacional?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Sao Paulo wins, 4 draws, 6 Sport Club Internacional wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 53:22 | 57 |
| 2 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 47:21 | 56 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:31 | 46 |
| 4 |  Bahia | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 42:33 | 46 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 39:39 | 42 |
| 7 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 35:31 | 39 |
| 8 |  Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 37:38 | 38 |
| 9 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 32:29 | 36 |
| 10 |  Santos | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 39:39 | 35 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 31:30 | 33 |
| 12 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 27:39 | 33 |
| 13 |  Corinthians Paulista | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 28:29 | 32 |
| 14 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 38:41 | 32 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 31:42 | 29 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 28:35 | 28 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 29:41 | 28 |
| 18 | Sport Club Internacional | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 30:35 | 28 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 27 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 31:45 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 28:52 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.