Mirassol vs Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mirassolvs
Botafogo de Futebol e RegatasThe model puts Mirassol at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Mirassol creates more chances (15 vs 12 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours Mirassol (1-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Mirassol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mirassol have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Mirassol is priced at 2.296.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mirassol at 44%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Mirassol is priced at 2.296. The draw is priced at 3.34. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas is priced at 3.14.
Mirassol have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Mirassol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Mirassol average 1 goals per game this season. Mirassol average 49% possession. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 1 goals per game this season. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 46% possession.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mirassol or Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas?
Our model rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Mirassol wins, 2 draws, 0 Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 53:22 | 57 |
| 2 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 47:21 | 56 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:31 | 46 |
| 4 |  Bahia | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 42:33 | 46 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 39:39 | 42 |
| 7 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 35:31 | 39 |
| 8 |  Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 37:38 | 38 |
| 9 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 32:29 | 36 |
| 10 |  Santos | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 39:39 | 35 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 31:30 | 33 |
| 12 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 27:39 | 33 |
| 13 |  Corinthians Paulista | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 28:29 | 32 |
| 14 | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 38:41 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 31:42 | 29 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 28:35 | 28 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 29:41 | 28 |
| 18 |  Sport Club Internacional | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 30:35 | 28 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 27 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 31:45 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 28:52 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.