Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A

CR Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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CR Vasco da Gamavs

Coritiba

Our predictionCR Vasco da Gama to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts CR Vasco da Gama at 63%. The model leans toward CR Vasco da Gama. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+CR Vasco da Gama creates more chances (19 vs 9 shots per game).
+CR Vasco da Gama controls more of the ball (56% vs 38%).
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · CR Vasco da Gama63%

Draw23%

2 · Coritiba15%

1 · CR Vasco da GamaDraw2 · Coritiba

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.81+15.5%

1X2CR Vasco da Gama1.54+1.1%

1X2Draw4.12-0.1%

1X2Coritiba6.10-1.0%

BTTSYes1.89-15.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

CR Vasco da GamaDWWLD

CoritibaWDLWL

Team strength rating

CR Vasco da Gama

Coritiba

Expected goals

1.67CR Vasco da Gama

0.53Coritiba

Over 2.5 goals38%

Both teams to score33%

Most likely scorelines

1-018.5%

2-015.4%

0-011.1%

1-19.8%

3-08.6%

2-18.2%

Match DNA

CR Vasco da Gama Coritiba

Key points

CR Vasco da Gama have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Coritiba have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
CR Vasco da Gama have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
CR Vasco da Gama is priced at 1.544.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2CR Vasco da Gama win1.54Fair (+1.1%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	11	6	2
1	18	10	3
2	15	8	2
3	9	5	1
4	4	2
5	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts CR Vasco da Gama at 63%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Coritiba at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward CR Vasco da Gama. CR Vasco da Gama is priced at 1.544. The draw is priced at 4.12. Coritiba is priced at 6.1.

CR Vasco da Gama have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Coritiba have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.

CR Vasco da Gama have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Coritiba have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

CR Vasco da Gama average 1 goals per game this season. CR Vasco da Gama average 56% possession. Coritiba average 1 goals per game this season. Coritiba average 38% possession.

The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, CR Vasco da Gama or Coritiba?

Our model rates CR Vasco da Gama as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for CR Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 3 CR Vasco da Gama wins, 7 draws, 5 Coritiba wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	27	17	4	6	53:22	57
2	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras	27	16	3	8	47:21	56
3	Clube Atletico Paranaense	27	13	7	7	41:31	46
4	Bahia	27	12	5	10	42:33	46
5	Fluminense	27	12	6	9	41:35	45
6	Cruzeiro Esporte Clube	27	12	9	6	39:39	42
7	Clube Atletico Mineiro	26	11	9	6	35:31	39
8	Coritiba	27	10	9	8	37:38	38
9	Red Bull Bragantino	26	10	10	6	32:29	36
10	Santos	26	9	9	8	39:39	35
11	Sao Paulo	26	9	11	6	31:30	33
12	EC Vitoria Salvador	27	9	12	6	27:39	33
13	Corinthians Paulista	27	8	11	8	28:29	32
14	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas	26	8	10	8	38:41	32
15	Mirassol	27	7	12	8	31:42	29
16	Gremio Porto Alegrense	26	7	12	7	28:35	28
17	CR Vasco da Gama	26	7	12	7	29:41	28
18	Sport Club Internacional	27	6	11	10	30:35	28
19	Clube do Remo	27	5	14	8	31:45	23
20	Chapecoense	26	3	15	8	28:52	17

Promotion - Copa Libertadores - (Group stage) Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification) Promotion - South America Cup Relegation - Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.