EC Vitoria Salvador vs Cruzeiro Esporte Clube: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
EC Vitoria Salvadorvs
Cruzeiro Esporte ClubeThe model puts Cruzeiro Esporte Clube at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Cruzeiro Esporte Clube.
- −The head-to-head record favours EC Vitoria Salvador (8-6-1).
- +Cruzeiro Esporte Clube controls more of the ball (45% vs 53%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- EC Vitoria Salvador have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- EC Vitoria Salvador have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube is priced at 2.512.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts EC Vitoria Salvador at 34%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Cruzeiro Esporte Clube at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. EC Vitoria Salvador is priced at 2.88. The draw is priced at 3.24. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube is priced at 2.512.
EC Vitoria Salvador have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
EC Vitoria Salvador have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
EC Vitoria Salvador average 1 goals per game this season. EC Vitoria Salvador average 45% possession. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube average 1 goals per game this season. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube average 53% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, EC Vitoria Salvador or Cruzeiro Esporte Clube?
Our model rates Cruzeiro Esporte Clube as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for EC Vitoria Salvador vs Cruzeiro Esporte Clube?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 EC Vitoria Salvador wins, 6 draws, 1 Cruzeiro Esporte Clube wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 53:22 | 57 |
| 2 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 47:21 | 56 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:31 | 46 |
| 4 |  Bahia | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 42:33 | 46 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 39:39 | 42 |
| 7 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 35:31 | 39 |
| 8 |  Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 37:38 | 38 |
| 9 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 32:29 | 36 |
| 10 |  Santos | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 39:39 | 35 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 31:30 | 33 |
| 12 | EC Vitoria Salvador | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 27:39 | 33 |
| 13 |  Corinthians Paulista | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 28:29 | 32 |
| 14 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 38:41 | 32 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 31:42 | 29 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 28:35 | 28 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 29:41 | 28 |
| 18 |  Sport Club Internacional | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 30:35 | 28 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 27 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 31:45 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 28:52 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.