Russia vs Nigeria: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Russiavs
NigeriaThe model puts Russia at 54%. The model leans toward Russia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Russia.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Russia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nigeria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Russia is priced at 1.825.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Russia at 54%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Nigeria at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Russia. Russia is priced at 1.825. The draw is priced at 3.46. Nigeria is priced at 4.58.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Russia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Russia are on 2 wins in a row. Nigeria have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Russia or Nigeria?
Our model rates Russia as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Russia vs Nigeria?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Russia wins, 1 draws, 0 Nigeria wins.
League table
Friendlies. National Teams| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  China | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Curacao | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.