Penang vs Melaka: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Penangvs
MelakaThe model puts Penang at 57%. The model leans toward Penang. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Melaka (0-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Penang have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Melaka have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Penang is priced at 1.58.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Penang at 57%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Melaka at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Penang. Penang is priced at 1.58. The draw is priced at 3.8. Melaka is priced at 4.875.
Melaka have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Penang have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Melaka have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Penang or Melaka?
Our model rates Penang as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Penang vs Melaka?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 Penang wins, 1 draws, 4 Melaka wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.