Somalia vs Ivory Coast: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Somaliavs
Ivory CoastThe model puts Ivory Coast at 93%. The model leans toward Ivory Coast. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ivory Coast (4-4-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Somalia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ivory Coast have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Somalia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ivory Coast is priced at 1.025.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 17 | 11 | 5 |
| 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Somalia at 1%. The model puts the draw at 6%. The model puts Ivory Coast at 93%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Ivory Coast. Somalia is priced at 99. The draw is priced at 14.5. Ivory Coast is priced at 1.025.
Somalia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Ivory Coast have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Somalia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ivory Coast have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 17% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Somalia or Ivory Coast?
Our model rates Ivory Coast as the most likely outcome at 93% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Somalia vs Ivory Coast?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Somalia wins, 4 draws, 7 Ivory Coast wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.