1. Koln vs Union Berlin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. Kolnvs
Union BerlinThe model puts 1. Koln at 56%. The model leans toward 1. Koln. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours 1. Koln.
- +The head-to-head record favours 1. Koln (9-4-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. Koln have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Union Berlin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Koln have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. Koln is priced at 1.8.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. Koln at 56%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Union Berlin at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward 1. Koln. 1. Koln is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 3.78. Union Berlin is priced at 4.03.
1. Koln have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Union Berlin have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. Koln have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Union Berlin have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. Koln or Union Berlin?
Our model rates 1. Koln as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. Koln vs Union Berlin?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 1. Koln wins, 4 draws, 2 Union Berlin wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.