Holstein vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Holsteinvs
TSG 1899 HoffenheimThe model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 60%. The model leans toward TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Holstein.
- −The head-to-head record favours Holstein (4-0-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Holstein have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Holstein have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Holstein at 21%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 60%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Holstein is priced at 5.66. The draw is priced at 4.7. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 1.47.
Holstein have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Holstein have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Holstein or TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model rates TSG 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Holstein vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 4 Holstein wins, 0 draws, 0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.