VfL Bochum vs 1. FSV Mainz 05: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VfL Bochumvs
1. FSV Mainz 05The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 60%. The model leans toward 1. FSV Mainz 05. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours 1. FSV Mainz 05.
- +The head-to-head record favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (3-2-10).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- VfL Bochum have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 1.63.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts VfL Bochum at 19%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 60%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward 1. FSV Mainz 05. VfL Bochum is priced at 4.695. The draw is priced at 4.1. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 1.63.
VfL Bochum have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
VfL Bochum have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VfL Bochum or 1. FSV Mainz 05?
Our model rates 1. FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs 1. FSV Mainz 05?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 VfL Bochum wins, 2 draws, 10 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.