Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Flamengovs
Independiente del ValleThe model puts Flamengo at 71%. The model leans toward Flamengo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Flamengo.
- +Independiente del Valle are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Flamengo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Flamengo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Flamengo will be without Fernandes Araujo.
- Independiente del Valle will be without Arroyo, Casarez, Mercado, Villar G..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Flamengo at 71%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Independiente del Valle at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Flamengo. Flamengo is priced at 1.35. The draw is priced at 5.1. Independiente del Valle is priced at 8.5.
Flamengo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Independiente del Valle have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Flamengo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Flamengo are on 2 wins in a row. Independiente del Valle have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Flamengo or Independiente del Valle?
Our model rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 2 Flamengo wins, 2 draws, 3 Independiente del Valle wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Flamengo
- 1Rossi Ag.
- 3Ortiz L.
- 4Pereira Le.
- 5Pulgar
- 6Ayrton L.
- 9Abreu P.
- 10De Arrascaeta
- 15Carrascal J.
- 16Lino
- 21Jorginho
- 22Junior Em.
- Fernandes Araujo (Missing Player)
Independiente del Valle
- 1Quintana Ald.
- 4Espinoza J.
- 5Schunke
- 6Alcivar J.
- 8Ochoa
- 11Perello
- 15Cortes
- 16Briones R.
- 17Rodriguez
- 23Viacava Caviglia
- 99Реаско
- Arroyo (Missing Player)
- Casarez (Missing Player)
- Mercado (Missing Player)
- Villar G. (Missing Player)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.