Genoa vs Sudtirol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Genoavs
SudtirolThe model puts Genoa at 57%. The model leans toward Genoa. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sudtirol.
- −The head-to-head record favours Sudtirol (0-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Genoa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sudtirol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Genoa is priced at 1.61.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Genoa at 57%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Sudtirol at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Genoa. Genoa is priced at 1.61. The draw is priced at 3.94. Sudtirol is priced at 5.62.
Sudtirol have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Genoa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Sudtirol have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Genoa or Sudtirol?
Our model rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Genoa vs Sudtirol?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Genoa wins, 1 draws, 2 Sudtirol wins.
Match statistics
Genoa
- 2Mitaj M.
- 4Amorim
- 8Baldanzi T.
- 9Vitinha
- 11Meichtry
- 16Drameh C.
- 27Marcandalli
- 31Puczka
- 34Otoa
- 71Wiafe
- 99Stolz F.
Sudtirol
- 3Veroli
- 9Burnete
- 17Anghele
- 19Pellini
- 21Tait Fa.
- 22Plizzari
- 23Davi
- 24Davi S.
- 25Mixtur
- 46Brick
- 55Giorgini
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.