Karlsruher vs Nurnberg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Karlsruhervs
NurnbergThe model puts Nurnberg at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Nurnberg.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Karlsruher are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Nurnberg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Karlsruher have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nurnberg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Karlsruher have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Karlsruher will be without Broschinski, Jung S..
- Nurnberg will be without Osawe, Mkrtchyan, Faye.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Karlsruher at 32%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Nurnberg at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Karlsruher is priced at 2.868. The draw is priced at 3.78. Nurnberg is priced at 2.19.
Karlsruher have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Nurnberg have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Karlsruher have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Nurnberg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Karlsruher average 1 goals per game this season. Karlsruher average 62% possession. Nurnberg average 4 goals per game this season. Nurnberg average 56% possession.
The model gives 79% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Karlsruher or Nurnberg?
Our model rates Nurnberg as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Karlsruher vs Nurnberg?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Karlsruher wins, 3 draws, 7 Nurnberg wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Karlsruher
- 1Bernat
- 3Ofli
- 10Wanitzek
- 11Eichinger
- 13Fukuda
- 19Ben Farhat
- 22Kobald
- 23Civeja
- 26Zor
- 28Franke M.
- 36Pinto Pedrosa
- Broschinski (Missing Player)
- Jung S. (Missing Player)
Nurnberg
- 1Reichert
- 4Kalogeropoulos
- 6Marhiev A.
- 8Fernandez
- 10Justvan
- 19Scobel
- 20Otto
- 22Bekker
- 23Zoma
- 32Janisch
- 41Porstner
- Osawe (Missing Player)
- Mkrtchyan (Missing Player)
- Faye (Missing Player)
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15:6 | 15 |
| 2 | Nurnberg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12:10 | 12 |
| 4 |  1. Magdeburg | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10:8 | 9 |
| 5 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:7 | 8 |
| 6 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 8 |
| 7 |  Energie Cottbus | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:12 | 7 |
| 8 |  VfL Bochum | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 9 |  St. Pauli | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 10 |  VfL Osnabruck | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:11 | 6 |
| 11 |  Greuther Furth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:10 | 5 |
| 12 | Karlsruher | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12:12 | 4 |
| 14 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Hannover 96 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 16 |  Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:8 | 4 |
| 17 |  Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7:12 | 4 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.