Holstein vs VfL Osnabruck: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Holsteinvs
VfL OsnabruckThe model puts Holstein at 53%. The model leans toward Holstein. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Holstein.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Holstein are dealing with notable absentees.
- +VfL Osnabruck are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Holstein have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabruck have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Holstein have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Holstein will be without Abe, Kelati, Muqaj, Reimers M., Roslyng, Schonlau, Therkelsen, Kvilitaia G., Rosenboom L..
- VfL Osnabruck will be without Badje, Bakatukanda.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Holstein at 53%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts VfL Osnabruck at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward Holstein. Holstein is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 3.92. VfL Osnabruck is priced at 3.86.
Holstein have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. VfL Osnabruck have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Holstein have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. VfL Osnabruck have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Holstein average 2 goals per game this season. Holstein average 64% possession. VfL Osnabruck average 3 goals per game this season. VfL Osnabruck average 46% possession.
The model gives 73% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Holstein or VfL Osnabruck?
Our model rates Holstein as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Holstein vs VfL Osnabruck?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Holstein wins, 1 draws, 6 VfL Osnabruck wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Holstein
- 1Vyner
- 8Balzi
- 11de Regt
- 13Nekic
- 15Davidsen
- 19Harres
- 20Kapralik A.
- 26Zec D.
- 28Meffert
- 32Sekine
- 47Tolkin J.
- Abe (Missing Player)
- Kelati (Missing Player)
- Muqaj (Missing Player)
- Reimers M. (Missing Player)
- Roslyng (Missing Player)
- Schonlau (Missing Player)
- Therkelsen (Missing Player)
- Kvilitaia G. (Missing Player)
- Rosenboom L. (Missing Player)
VfL Osnabruck
- 8Munst
- 11Meissner R.
- 15Jacobsen B.
- 21Beck
- 24Muller J.
- 25Wiemann
- 26Wagner F.
- 27Fabinski
- 31Kammerbauer
- 32Krumrey
- 42Jogo
- Badje (Questionable)
- Bakatukanda (Questionable)
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15:6 | 15 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12:10 | 12 |
| 4 |  1. Magdeburg | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10:8 | 9 |
| 5 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:7 | 8 |
| 6 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 8 |
| 7 |  Energie Cottbus | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:12 | 7 |
| 8 |  VfL Bochum | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 9 |  St. Pauli | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabruck | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:11 | 6 |
| 11 |  Greuther Furth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:10 | 5 |
| 12 |  Karlsruher | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12:12 | 4 |
| 14 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Hannover 96 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 16 |  Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:8 | 4 |
| 17 |  Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7:12 | 4 |
| 18 | Holstein | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.