Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas vs Gremio Porto Alegrense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatasvs
Gremio Porto AlegrenseThe model puts Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas at 59%. The model leans toward Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas score more per game (2.0 at home vs 0.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas (8-3-4).
- +Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas creates more chances (17 vs 9 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gremio Porto Alegrense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas is priced at 1.715.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 11 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas at 59%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Gremio Porto Alegrense at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas is priced at 1.715. The draw is priced at 3.78. Gremio Porto Alegrense is priced at 4.84.
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Gremio Porto Alegrense have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Gremio Porto Alegrense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 2 goals per game this season. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 48% possession. Gremio Porto Alegrense average 0 goals per game this season. Gremio Porto Alegrense average 51% possession.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas or Gremio Porto Alegrense?
Our model rates Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas vs Gremio Porto Alegrense?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas wins, 3 draws, 4 Gremio Porto Alegrense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 53:22 | 57 |
| 2 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 47:21 | 56 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:31 | 46 |
| 4 |  Bahia | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 42:33 | 46 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 39:39 | 42 |
| 7 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 35:31 | 39 |
| 8 |  Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 37:38 | 38 |
| 9 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 32:29 | 36 |
| 10 |  Santos | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 39:39 | 35 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 31:30 | 33 |
| 12 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 27:39 | 33 |
| 13 |  Corinthians Paulista | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 28:29 | 32 |
| 14 | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 38:41 | 32 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 31:42 | 29 |
| 16 | Gremio Porto Alegrense | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 28:35 | 28 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 29:41 | 28 |
| 18 |  Sport Club Internacional | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 30:35 | 28 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 27 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 31:45 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 28:52 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.