Kazakhstan vs Moldova: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kazakhstanvs
MoldovaThe model puts Kazakhstan at 56%. The model leans toward Kazakhstan. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Kazakhstan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Moldova have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kazakhstan have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Kazakhstan is priced at 1.675.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Kazakhstan at 56%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Moldova at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is priced at 1.675. The draw is priced at 3.7. Moldova is priced at 5.35.
Kazakhstan have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Moldova have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Kazakhstan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Moldova have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kazakhstan or Moldova?
Our model rates Kazakhstan as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kazakhstan vs Moldova?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 2 Kazakhstan wins, 2 draws, 3 Moldova wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Albania | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.