D.C. United vs Charlotte: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
D.C. Unitedvs
CharlotteThe model puts Charlotte at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Charlotte score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours D.C. United (7-1-3).
- −D.C. United creates more chances (13 vs 10 shots per game).
- −Charlotte are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- D.C. United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlotte have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- D.C. United will be without Segal.
- Charlotte will be without John, Abada, Berchimas, Goodwin, Toffolo.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts D.C. United at 37%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Charlotte at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. D.C. United is priced at 2.87. The draw is priced at 3.64. Charlotte is priced at 2.32.
D.C. United have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Charlotte have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
D.C. United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Charlotte have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
D.C. United average 1 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 40% possession. Charlotte average 2 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 43% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, D.C. United or Charlotte?
Our model rates Charlotte as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for D.C. United vs Charlotte?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 7 D.C. United wins, 1 draws, 3 Charlotte wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
D.C. United
- 1Johnson S.
- 2Nono
- 3Bartlett
- 5Hefti
- 6Kurokawa Ke.
- 7Peglow
- 9Baribo
- 11Munteanu L.
- 15Rowles
- 21Dozzell
- 23Servania
- Segal (Missing Player)
Charlotte
- 1Kahlina
- 3Ream T.
- 8Westwood A.
- 9Markovic
- 10Saint-Maximin
- 14Byrne Na.
- 16Biel P.
- 22Kessler
- 23Schnegg D.
- 28Diani
- 37Aloko
- John (Missing Player)
- Abada (Questionable)
- Berchimas (Missing Player)
- Goodwin (Questionable)
- Toffolo (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.