CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CF Montrealvs
Columbus CrewThe model puts CF Montreal at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Columbus Crew score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +CF Montreal creates more chances (15 vs 12 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −CF Montreal are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Columbus Crew are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Columbus Crew controls more of the ball (49% vs 57%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- CF Montreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CF Montreal have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CF Montreal will be without Amaya F., Vera Br., Davis Bo., Pereira.
- Columbus Crew will be without Ali A., Bangura, Farsi, Camacho R..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CF Montreal at 38%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Columbus Crew at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. CF Montreal is priced at 2.49. The draw is priced at 3.66. Columbus Crew is priced at 2.632.
CF Montreal have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Columbus Crew have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
CF Montreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Columbus Crew have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
CF Montreal average 1 goals per game this season. CF Montreal average 49% possession. Columbus Crew average 2 goals per game this season. Columbus Crew average 57% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CF Montreal or Columbus Crew?
Our model rates CF Montreal as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 CF Montreal wins, 4 draws, 5 Columbus Crew wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
CF Montreal
- 1Breza
- 2Neal J.
- 3Ceballos
- 5Craig
- 6Piette
- 9Owusu P.
- 10Sanchez A
- 21Herbers
- 22Loturi V.
- 23Streit
- 28Radojevic
- Amaya F. (Questionable)
- Vera Br. (Missing Player)
- Davis Bo. (Questionable)
- Pereira (Missing Player)
Columbus Crew
- 2Herrera
- 8Rodriguez Sant.
- 10Mendez Br.
- 11Lennon Br.
- 18Amundsen
- 20Gomes An.
- 25Zawadzki
- 28Schulte
- 31Moreira S.
- 50Karumanchi
- 77Martinez Jos.
- Ali A. (Missing Player)
- Bangura (Missing Player)
- Farsi (Questionable)
- Camacho R. (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.