USA. MLS

Minnesota United vs Los Angeles Galaxy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Minnesota Unitedvs

Los Angeles Galaxy

Our predictionMinnesota United to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Minnesota United at 59%. Minnesota United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The head-to-head record favours Minnesota United (7-4-4).
+Minnesota United creates more chances (14 vs 12 shots per game).
−Minnesota United are dealing with notable absentees.
+Los Angeles Galaxy are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Minnesota United59%

Draw20%

2 · Los Angeles Galaxy21%

1 · Minnesota UnitedDraw2 · Los Angeles Galaxy

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Minnesota United1.66+2.0%

1X2Los Angeles Galaxy4.42-0.3%

1X2Draw4.42-1.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Minnesota UnitedDLLLD

Los Angeles GalaxyLWLDW

Team strength rating

Minnesota United

Los Angeles Galaxy

Expected goals

1.56Minnesota United

0.63Los Angeles Galaxy

Over 2.5 goals37%

Both teams to score37%

Most likely scorelines

1-017.4%

2-013.5%

0-011.2%

1-111.0%

2-18.6%

0-17.1%

Match DNA

Minnesota United Los Angeles Galaxy

Key points

Minnesota United have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
Minnesota United will be without Boxall, Hlongwane B., Duncan K., Stroud.
Los Angeles Galaxy will be without Wynder, Puig R., Paintsil J..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Minnesota United win1.66Fair (+2.0%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	11	7	2
1	17	11	4
2	14	9	3
3	7	4	1
4	3	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Minnesota United at 59%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 21%.

Minnesota United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

Minnesota United have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Los Angeles Galaxy have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Minnesota United average 1 goals per game this season. Los Angeles Galaxy average 1 goals per game this season. Minnesota United take 14 shots per game. Los Angeles Galaxy take 12 shots per game.

Minnesota United will be without Boxall, Hlongwane B., Duncan K., Stroud. Los Angeles Galaxy will be without Wynder, Puig R., Paintsil J..

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Minnesota United or Los Angeles Galaxy?

Our model rates Minnesota United as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Minnesota United vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 7 Minnesota United wins, 4 draws, 4 Los Angeles Galaxy wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchDugganMinnesota United8.2