Houston Dynamo vs Cincinnati: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Houston Dynamovs
CincinnatiThe model puts Houston Dynamo at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Cincinnati score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Cincinnati (0-3-2).
- −Houston Dynamo are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cincinnati have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo will be without Maurer J., Saracchi M., Foster L..
- Houston Dynamo is priced at 2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Houston Dynamo at 45%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Cincinnati at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Houston Dynamo. Houston Dynamo is priced at 2. The draw is priced at 3.86. Cincinnati is priced at 3.38.
Cincinnati have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Cincinnati have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Houston Dynamo average 1 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 45% possession. Cincinnati average 2 goals per game this season. Cincinnati average 46% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Houston Dynamo or Cincinnati?
Our model rates Houston Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Houston Dynamo vs Cincinnati?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 Houston Dynamo wins, 3 draws, 2 Cincinnati wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Houston Dynamo
- 5Halter
- 6de Lima A.
- 11Ennali
- 16Herrera He.
- 19Bogusz M.
- 20Guilherme Au.
- 23McGuire
- 30Bouzat
- 31Bond J.
- 34Rech
- 36Andrade
- Maurer J. (Missing Player)
- Saracchi M. (Questionable)
- Foster L. (Missing Player)
Cincinnati
- 5Nwobodo
- 9Denkey
- 10Ferreira Ev.
- 11Gidi
- 12Robinson M.
- 17Mboma
- 18Celentano
- 20Bucha P.
- 22Valenzuela
- 66Echenique
- 88Chirila
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.